The Disney dilemma
Disney sequels to "Inside Out" and "Moana" are blockbusters, but can the company still launch a new franchise?
The Gist
“Moana 2” is breaking box-office records this weekend. Following the success of “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool and Wolverine,” it seems that Disney is “back.”
But Disney has failed to launch successful new IP in recent years; it will face real tests in 2025 with an original Pixar movie and a new Marvel property.
Disney, and the larger movie business, can’t just rely on sequels and remakes, even if that’s how the company has maintained its dominance for years.
Disney’s “Moana 2” is estimated to earn $220 million in the US over the five-day Thanksgiving week, a new box-office record for the holiday. It would be an understatement to say that’s a solid opening for a movie that was originally conceived as a Disney+ TV series.
Disney has struggled over the last few years at the box office after an era of unprecedented success (it released seven billion-dollar grossing movies in 2019). It seemed like no film across its divisions could quite work in the post-pandemic market; “Strange World” and “Wish” (Disney Animation); “Indiana Jones 5” (Lucasfilm); “Lightyear” (Pixar); “Ant-Man 3” and “The Marvels” (Marvel); “Haunted Mansion” and “Little Mermaid” (Disney live-action)…all disappointments or outright flops.
But the company has turned a corner at the movies this year, already with two billion-dollar grossers in Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” and Marvel’s “Deadpool and Wolverine” — and it looks like “Moana 2” could make that three. By most accounts, it would appear that Disney is officially “back.”
The contrarian view, though, is that the company’s real test is coming in 2025, when an original Pixar movie, “Elio,” and a new Marvel property, “Thunderbolts,” will hit theaters (audiences haven’t been kind recently to comic-book movies starring secondary characters). “Captain America: Brave New World” isn’t necessarily a guaranteed hit: will audiences embrace a new Cap six years after “Endgame” and four years after Anthony Mackie first officially took over the role in Disney+’s “Falcon and Winter Soldier”? Disney’s “Snow White” live-action remake, set for release in March, has also already faced controversy, something studios (particularly Disney), are keen to avoid in a politically volatile environment, so we’ll see if the company can maneuver through that as well.
Yes, it’s also releasing reliable sequels like “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar 3” next year. But these basically have success baked into them. As I wrote last week, on the heels of the success of Universal’s “Wicked,” Hollywood could use fresh franchises to drive the movie business into the far future. Disney has relied on follow-ups to popular properties for its movie rebound narrative, but can it launch a successful new series? One could argue that that’s not the business Disney is in; that it has maintained its dominance over the last decade by doing the exact opposite, by stretching whatever sequels and remakes it can out of its decades of IP.
The last few years have shown that strategy has its limits: The “Little Mermaid” live-action remake grossed a fair $570 million worldwide, but failed to reach the highs of its pre-pandemic live-action predecessors like “Lion King,” “Aladdin,” and “Beauty and the Beast,” all of which made over $1 billion. The new Indiana Jones did not even crack $400 million worldwide, something “Moana 2” will do in its first week. “Lightyear,” a Toy Story spinoff, made just $226 million globally, one of the weakest performances for a Pixar movie.
Not to mention, all of that IP started somewhere. Those blockbuster live-action remakes of the 2010s would not have been possible without the Disney animation “renaissance” of the ‘90s. But now the well is drying up so much that a “Moana” live-action remake is set for 2026, just a decade after the first movie debuted. Sure, there’s a reason Disney is doubling down on “Moana,” as the original has become a streaming sensation and was the most-streamed movie of 2023, according to Nielsen. But “Strange World” ($73 million globally) and “Wish” (a more respectable $254 million, but still disappointing) probably won’t be launching sequels or remakes any time soon.
Last year, I declared that Universal has dethroned Disney as the animation champion. One could say, after Disney’s success with “Inside Out 2” and “Moana 2,” that maybe that was premature. But Universal’s “Despicable Me 4” still grossed nearly $1 billion globally ($970 million), “Kung Fu Panda 4” made nearly $550 million, and “Wild Robot” has done something that new Disney animated IP has struggled to do: beat box-office expectations. It’s earned at least $320 million worldwide and a sequel is already in the works (not to mention, it seems to be the frontrunner for the animated feature Oscar). So I don’t necessarily regret that declaration; the coming years might just look more like a grudge match. Universal is even taking a page out of the Disney playbook with a “How to Train Your Dragon” live-action remake next year.
Of course, Disney has something other studios don’t have: Disney+. “Moana” may have been the biggest streaming movie last year, but it wasn’t the only Disney film to enjoy a revival of sorts thanks to the platform. “Encanto” and Pixar’s “Elemental” were the No. 2 and No. 4 movies. The former was considered a disappointment in theaters and the latter a lukewarm hit. But both have reached millions on Disney+, which accounted for six of the top 10 movies on Nielsen’s list last year. Coming out of the pandemic, it seemed like Disney+ had tainted Disney’s brand in theaters, but another way of looking at it is as an extension.
But it just goes to show that even in its streaming era, Disney still needs to prove itself during that first theatrical window with new IP. “Encanto” and “Elemental” wouldn’t have succeeded on Disney+ if not for that first wave of marketing and word-of-mouth. That’s what the Disney flywheel is all about.
Ironically, “Wicked” — which had a stellar second weekend over the Thanksgiving holiday — seems like the kind of new-to-the-screen IP that Disney would want to, and should be, chasing (never mind that Universal has owned the rights for over 25 years). It’s based on beloved material; it’s relatively “safe”; it has massive merchandising, theme park, and franchise potential; and Elphaba and Glinda are practically Disney princesses. There’s the question of whether Disney is willing to take chances on IP that isn’t already in its own toy box — but long-term, sequels and remakes can’t be the only thing to keep the flywheel spinning…right?
Beyond the Traverse
🐭 The “Deadpool and Wolverine” script reveals a cut joke from the movie referred to Mickey Mouse’s cock.
⭐️ “Dune” director Denis Villeneuve has no interest in directing a “Star Wars” movie because the franchise “derailed” with “Return of the Jedi” (Disney must be breathing a sigh of relief he didn’t blame them).
📺 A bunch of streaming services are offering steep discounts for Cyber Monday.