Hollywood and the Big-Budget Blunders
Major theatrical tentpoles are crashing and burning this year. What's happening?
We’re halfway through 2023 and the summer box office is heating up — or is it?
Looking at the top movies so far this year, there are the usual suspects of a couple Marvel Cinematic Universe movies, a Disney remake, and a Spider-Man. But a closer look shows that Hollywood should probably be worried about the financial state of blockbuster moviemaking, including some of its once-reliable franchises.
Sure, “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” is currently the No. 5 biggest movie in the US this year. But at $214 million, it’s among the worst performing MCU movies. It made less than, say, “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings,” a pandemic-era Marvel release.
DC’s “Shazam! Fury of the Gods” and “The Flash” earned less than that combined, and while the latter is still in theaters, it is quickly fizzling out after a disastrous opening.
“Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” “beat expectations” when it opened with $60 million, but after three weeks in theaters, it’s earned $123 million in the US; it will probably finish its domestic run not far off from the lowest-grossing movies in the franchise. What was once a surefire money-making machine has seemingly lost every inch of audience goodwill it once had.
“The Little Mermaid” has grossed $270 million in the US, and $500 million worldwide; far from $1 billion-grossing Disney remakes like “Lion King,” “Aladdin,” and “Beauty and the Beast.”
And “Fast X,” the tenth installment in the long-running “Fast and Furious” franchise, is stalling in the US with $145 million after over a month in theaters. Worldwide, it’s almost reached $700 million, so the international audience is still there — but it’s likely to finish with less than the previous entry, “F9,” did at the height of the pandemic. And reaching the $1 billion heights of the seventh and eighth movies might be a thing of the past.
All of these have more in common than just being big-budget (we’re talking $200 million productions costs) box-office disappointments: they’re also just not very good movies. That’s not me saying it: Critics hate them, and audiences seem lukewarm. Most of them received B or B+ grades from CinemaScore, which surveys moviegoers on opening night; fine if you’re passing a history class, but subpar for movies that have massive price tags and are supposed to be huge “crowd pleasers.”
The bright spot: Franchise films that have performed well this year are also, for the most part, good movies.
The R-rated “John Wick: Capter 4,” one of the best action films in recent memory, is likely going to beat a Transformers movie, a Fast movie, and two DC movies at the North American box office. So will “Creed III.” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” an incredible piece of animated filmmaking and one of the best superhero movies maybe ever, might end up making more in the US than its predecessor, “Into the Spider-Verse,” made worldwide. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” is the MCU’s best movie since “Endgame,” and while it’s not blowing up the box office like Marvel’s heyday, it’s still made over $800 million globally and counting.
Critics liked these movies, and so did audiences; they all received an A- or A grade from CinemaScore. It looks like something is happening: bad tentpole movies aren’t making good money and the good ones are. (Personally, the good ones have made the bad ones seem even worse: lazy writing, forced callbacks, horrible CGI, etc. I don’t remember a year where there seemed to be such a large gap between the bad Hollywood tentpoles and the good ones).
That trend might continue in the coming weeks with “Indiana Jones and the Dial of the Destiny” and “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning.” Both movies are part of long-running franchises with aging movie stars, but only the latter is running on the good will of A) the last movie in the “Mission: Impossible” franchise was beloved and B) star Tom Cruise is coming off of a stellar 2022 where his movie “Top Gun: Maverick” was the biggest movie in the US of the year.
“Dial of Destiny” received mediocre reviews out of the Cannes film festival, and currently has a 67% Rotten Tomatoes critic score. Early box-office tracking had it opening between $60 million and $70 million domestically this weekend; the last movie, “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,” opened to $100 million before accounting for inflation. “Dead Reckoning” on the other hand is tracking for what would be a franchise best of around $90 million. Early reactions from critics have largely been positive.
It’s tough to pinpoint exactly what’s happening here without going from cinema to cinema and interviewing audience members. But based on my experience reporting on box-office trends, and based on the movies themselves, I’d guess it comes down to a few things:
People are becoming less and less interested in going to the theater for movies they aren’t confident will be worth the time and money. It’s expensive to go to the movies these days, when you factor in the rising cost of ticket sales and concessions. If a movie doesn’t get good word of mouth, it could be dead on arrival.
The pandemic, and more specifically the streaming boom during the pandemic, trained a lot of people to wait for movies at home. Movies that convince consumers they’re an event or experience that has to be seen in a movie theater will have an advantage. But when the latest Marvel or Pixar will go to Disney+ in a month, the average person might wait.
It’s becoming harder and harder to become invested in big movie franchises. The tenth installment in a franchise, even one as popular as “The Fast Saga,” will always have an uphill battle; now times that by three for the MCU. “Rise of the Beasts” was sold as a “reboot” AND a “prequel to the Michael Bay Transformers movies” AND a “sequel to Bumblebee” AND, come to find out, it is also setting up a “GI JOE crossover universe” (spoilers!). “The Flash” marketing wanted you to think it was a Batman movie or a Justice League movie or a Supergirl movie AND a “multiverse” movie. And I’ve been told by a friend that I should watch for the first time “Kingdom of the Crystal Skull,” widely regarded as the worst Indiana Jones movie, before seeing “Dial of Destiny.”
Studios are practically begging audiences to be disinterested in movies they spend hundreds of millions of dollars on. In some ways, it’s disheartening. On the other hand, maybe something good will come out of this. Maybe studios will try harder to make good movies, rather than ones that feel like corporate-mandated products. Maybe Hollywood will try to develop original franchises for a new generation.
The last part is tough, admittedly. It’s hard to get a brand-new big-budget movie franchise off the ground because there’s so much risk involved with it (unless you’re James Cameron). That’s why Hollywood has been spitting out ones that try to capture nostalgia. But it turns out, the people nostalgic for seeing Michael Keaton’s Batman on the big screen again in “The Flash” either aren’t going to the movies anymore or there aren’t that many of them to begin with. If you’re nostalgic for “The Little Mermaid,” the original animated classic is sitting on Disney+ for you to watch at any time.
Aforementioned film franchises like “John Wick” and “Creed” offer a potential template for Hollywood moving forward. The former offers old-school action filmmaking updated with some modern flair thanks to the deft craftsmanship of a former stuntman-turned-director. It took an aging movie star with a solid fanbase in Keanu Reeves and gave him a brand-new franchise, starting with the low-budget first entry in 2014 that managed to kickoff a new “universe” — each movie has gotten bigger, both in budget but also in box office, and a spinoff TV series and movie are on the way.
“Creed” on the other hand introduced a new character with ties to an old one, and has successfully even phased out Rocky Balboa himself. Sylvester Stallone was a no-show for “Creed III,” yet the movie is the highest-grossing movie in the trilogy.
But the best template for Hollywood to follow would be good movies — maybe that’s what audiences are actually nostalgic for.