The manga moment

"One Piece," based on a manga and anime, was Netflix's biggest show in the second half of 2023. Don't be surprised if the rest of Hollywood takes notice.

“One Piece” (Netflix)

Last year, I started reading Japanese manga. I’ve been reading American comic books probably since I could read, so I’m surprised it took me so long to break into such a popular art form. But now is probably as good a time as any.

Manga and anime have been on the rise outside of Japan in recent years. Manga sales skyrocketed in the US during the pandemic, accounting for over half of graphic-novel sales in 2022. A 2021 report estimated the global anime market to be valued at $24 billion, half outside of Japan.

Streaming services have taken notice. On Friday, Netflix released its second engagement report, accounting for viewership for nearly its entire library from July to December last year. The top program was “One Piece” season one, a live-action adaptation of the hit manga and anime of the same name, with over 71 million views in that time frame (it was released in late August, so really in its first four months; it took just two weeks for Netflix to renew the series for a second season back in September, which — considering how Netflix has approached other renewal announcements — means it was pleased with the show’s performance).

It’s not the first time Netflix has adapted anime or manga material, to varying results. It swiftly canceled its 2021 adaptation of the anime “Cowboy Bebop” after one season, but renewed its live-action “Avatar: The Last Airbender” earlier this year for two more seasons (“Avatar” isn’t technically anime, but is heavily inspired by it). And it’s not done there: Netflix is reportedly on board a film adaptation of “My Hero Academia” and is taking another stab at “Death Note,” this time as a series from the creators of “Stranger Things” after its 2017 film adaptation was poorly received.

Amazon Prime Video is also developing a live-action movie based on the “Hellsing” manga. It’s probably not a coincidence that Amazon and Netflix are the two major streaming platforms that have dramatically increased their anime content in recent years. As I wrote in March, Prime Video increased its anime content hours 84% from Q1 2019 to Q3 2023, and Netflix by 39% in the same time period, according to Ampere Analysis. If the live-action adaptations cause viewers to go back and watch the anime on these platforms, that drives further engagement. Anything that keeps viewers on the platform longer is an additional benefit. That seemed to be the case for “One Piece”; Netflix said viewership for the anime more than doubled after the live-action series debuted (now Netflix is developing a “reimagining” of the anime, too).

Manga and anime adaptations are valuable for global streamers like Netflix and Amazon because A) unlike traditional media companies like Disney that have a library of legacy content, Netflix and Amazon are essentially starting from scratch with their IP; and B) the fandom is all over the world, and engagement outside the US is critical.

But the medium could also be valuable for traditional Hollywood studios. The US box office is flailing right now and that’s even more apparent this weekend, which will be the lowest Memorial Day weekend box office in four decades.

Hollywood is at an inflection point. The franchises that dominated the 2010s — like the Marvel Cinematic Universe and “Fast and Furious” — have sputtered with recent installments. Original movies like “The Fall Guy” are crashing and burning (“Oppenheimer” not withstanding). It seems that the new normal might be two or three bonafide box-office hits a year, which doesn’t seem like a sustainable business for theaters. Coming into this weekend, the US box office was down over 20% compared to this time last year, a margin that will only widen come Monday.

In other words, Hollywood is in desperate need of familiar but not overdone IP with global appeal, and manga and anime fit the bill. Just look at the 2020 anime movie “Demon Slayer: Mugen Train.” It grossed $453 million worldwide and was the second-biggest 2020 release at the global box office behind the Chinese movie “The Eight Hundred.” Granted, the vast majority of its total ($364 million of it) came from Japan, but it earned a respectable $50 million in the US when it was released stateside in April 2021, when theaters had just re-opened from the pandemic. Anime has an audience that is willing to come out to theaters, and good adaptations could appeal to more than just the core base.

Like with the recent surge of video-game adaptations, don’t be surprised if we see more manga and anime get a similar treatment across the streamers and studios. And for what it’s worth, as I previously wrote about, the most popular anime titles in the world according to Parrot Analytics are “Jujutsu Kaisen” and “Attack on Titan” — neither of which Hollywood has tackled yet.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee that any adaptations would be successful. Like I said, Netflix’s attempts have been hit-or-miss and other Hollywood tries have been huge misfires (remember 2009’s “Dragonball Evolution”? Probably not). And, if the fandom is anything like American comics, manga and anime fans are probably pretty protective of the source material. But just as American superhero movies have appealed to the masses, Japanese manga adaptations have the potential to reach a broad consumer base begging for something new, if done right.

Beyond the Traverse

• “Furiosa,” depressingly, is bombing at the box office

• Damon Lindelof, of HBO’s “Watchmen” and “The Leftovers” fame, has joined the writing team of DC’s Green Lantern TV series

• Marvel is bringing back The Vision for his own Disney+ TV series

• Paramount is still trying to make “Star Trek” movies happen