Diminishing Returns of the Jedi
Star Wars is in a slump. Should Disney seriously consider moving on from Kathleen Kennedy?
The Gist
The Star Wars franchise has settled into a routine of mediocre TV shows that aren’t generating the kind of buzz one would expect from a Star Wars product.
By the time a movie comes to theaters, it will be seven years since the last one. There have been a comical number of projects announced and abandoned.
It’s all quite embarrassing. While not all of the franchise’s problems fall on Kathleen Kennedy, it still might be time for Disney to move on from her.
Another Star Wars show, another debate over the health and direction of the franchise.
That seems to be the case with any new Star Wars TV show these days, and I say “shows” because there hasn’t been a movie in five years. This time it’s “The Acolyte,” which debuted June 4. It takes place hundreds of years before “The Phantom Menace” and was touted as a sort of mystery-thriller. After watching the first couple episodes, I can say the thrills are few and far between.
That’s been the case with the last few of these shows. I also found “Obi-Wan Kenobi” and “Ahsoka” to be extremely dull (and the most recent season of “The Mandalorian” was a colossal misfire). But I’m not here to harp on the quality of these releases (though I probably will at some other point while writing this); let’s get into the actual numbers.
Disney announced on Monday that the first episode of “The Acolyte” generated 11 million views globally in its first five days; it’s a drop from “Ahsoka,” the first episode of which saw 14 million views globally in its first week, Disney said at the time. Back in 2022, the first episode of “Obi-Wan” attracted an average of 11 million viewers in its first three days just in the US, according to a Nielsen special report.
Maybe somebody could better explain this to me like I’m a five year old in case I’m missing something, but that seems like an egregious drop in interest for these shows. Yes, I know Obi-Wan is a legacy Star Wars character while “Ahsoka” was basically a sequel to the animated shows, and “The Acolyte” is introducing brand-new characters. But when Disney bought Lucasfilm for $4 billion in 2012, I doubt they were cool with diminishing returns.
And yet, that’s what has been happening, especially when looking back at more Nielsen figures (the measurement company releases a weekly streaming report based on number of minutes viewed). “The Mandalorian” season two’s debut episode in 2020 premiered with 1.032 billion viewing minutes in the US in its first weekend; the first episode of its spinoff, “The Book of Boba Fett,” premiered with 389 million minutes in its first five days. “Obi-Wan” was a rebound, but then “Andor” (which is exceptional!) debuted with 624 million minutes in its first five days over three episodes, meaning “Fett” — which wasn’t a roaring success — nabbed nearly two-thirds of the viewing time in one episode that “Andor” did in three.
Yes, I know the sequel trilogy made billions of dollars at the box office. I know “The Mandalorian” is a hit and that “Andor” is acclaimed. But the state of “Star Wars” right now is about much more than the franchise’s past successes; it’s about the identity of the brand to the larger public, and that identity is starting to look a bit more like Star Trek than Star Wars. Disney has effectively turned the second-biggest movie franchise of all time in terms of total box-office grosses, behind the MCU, into a TV franchise — one in which only the most loyal of fans are keeping up with it all while the broader population is pretty much content with following the adventures of Grogu.
Before the Trekkies get upset, there’s nothing wrong with Star Trek. But as I wrote last week in my analysis of Paramount, Star Trek’s roots are in TV, and the studio dropped the ball in turning it into a relevant movie franchise. Star Wars on the other hand is rooted in the big screen and yet there hasn’t been a feature since the dreadful “Rise of Skywalker” in 2019. There have been plenty of announcements that have gone nowhere; now it seems that a “Mandalorian” movie is coming in 2026, directed by “Iron Man” filmmaker Jon Favreau, which is apparently different than the crossover movie from Dave Filoni that’s also set in the “Mandalorian” universe.
It’s all probably hurting the Star Wars brand. And after years of avoiding it, I think I’m finally ready to ask: is it time for Disney to move on from Lucasfilm head Kathleen Kennedy?
Not all of Star Wars’ problems fall on Kennedy. Disney CEO Bob Iger is the one who asked for more Star Wars content. First he said there would be a Star Wars movie every year before he pivoted. Then he had Disney’s studio divisions pump out a steady stream of content for Disney+ until he realized it was “diluting the focus” of creatives, and is now acting like it wasn’t his big idea in the first place. And like I said, there have been some big successes since Disney revived the franchise with “The Force Awakens.”
But the fact that seven years will go by without a “Star Wars” movie (which I’ll believe it when I see it) is rather embarrassing, especially given the many aforementioned abandoned projects in that time, including from:
“Game of Thrones” creators David Benioff and DB Weiss, who exited for a big Netflix deal instead
“The Last Jedi” director Rian Johnson, who was announced to make a new trilogy
“Thor: Ragnarok” director Taika Waititi (the last update was that he’s still working on it, but doesn’t want to “rush” it. Right.)
“Wonder Woman” director Patty Jenkins (she said this year that she’s back to working on a draft of her “Rogue Squadron” script, saying “we’ll see what happens.” Sounds confident!)
Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige
“Deadpool and Wolverine” director Shawn Levy, which goes to show anyone in the Disney orbit seems to have a chance to make — and then not make — a Star Wars movie (he’s now reportedly in the running to direct the next “Avengers” movie, so I’ll take this with a grain of salt, too)
And then there’s the behind-the-scenes drama with the movies that did get made, from the “Rogue One” reshoots to replacing Phil Lord and Chris Miller with Ron Howard on “Solo” to bringing back JJ Abrams for “Rise of Skywalker.”
And as long as we’re on the topics of the movies, even each installment of the sequel trilogy earned less at the box office than the previous one. They all grossed over $1 billion, sure, and “The Force Awakens” set a high bar, but by the time the final entry, “The Rise of Skywalker,” came out, it really had to work for it. It passed the milestone in 28 days, while “Force Awakens” did it in 12 days and “Last Jedi” in 19. “Rise of Skywalker” ultimately grossed a little over half of what “Force Awakens” did worldwide. It suggests a possible exasperation from general consumers had set in, and it hasn’t exactly dissipated.
Star Wars has still been a wise investment for Disney. But the vibe I’m getting is that the general populace is souring on, or at least becoming indifferent, to the franchise, and I don’t think Disney wants to turn Star Wars into a niche product. Something’s got to give, and much of the issues I raised fall on Kennedy. Don’t just take it from me: Matt Belloni, author of the Hollywood-focused newsletter What I’m Hearing, declared three years ago that she needed to go.
The most toxic corners of the fanbase have been clamoring for this for years, mostly for racist or sexist reasons, and it would be tough to give them a win. But from a pure business and creative standpoint, something’s not quite working (And this is only Star Wars; Lucasfilm’s new Indiana Jones movie, “The Dial of Destiny,” bombed last year).
Any new Star Wars product should feel like an event, yet — to bring it full cirlce — “The Acolyte” seems to be landing with a shrug, especially compared to other eventized television. Earlier this year, Amazon’s “Fallout” was a hit. I estimated in a previous story, based on Nielsen data, that at least 8 million people in the U.S. watched half of the season in its first five days. That’s not counting the people who actually finished it all. Remember how “The Acolyte” got 11 million viewers globally in five days?
I also turned to Parrot Analytics, a reliable data source that measures the interest in and engagement with content (what it calls demand). “The Acolyte” is about 20 times more “in demand” than the average show in the US right now, a solid figure. But HBO’s “House of the Dragon,” which debuts its second season on Sunday, is 51 times more in demand; Amazon’s “The Boys,” which just debuted its fourth season this week, is 44 times; and Netflix’s “Bridgerton,” which dropped part two of its third season this week, is about 68 times more in demand than the average show.
Again, it’s not Kennedy’s fault that she was given a mandate to make *Adam Driver Kylo Ren voice* MORE Star Wars content to boost Disney+. But I like to think if “The Acolyte” was a better show — and if previous “Star Wars” shows (and movies) were more consistently good — then we’d be seeing a bigger response. The most talk I’m seeing online about “The Acolyte” is whether fire burns in space. Really?
On deck for Star Wars is more TV, including “Skeleton Crew” from MCU Spider-Man helmer Jon Watts, and second seasons of “Andor” and “Ahsoka.” On the movie front, beyond the Mando-verse, Lucasfilm has also announced a movie from “Logan” director James Mangold about the dawn of the Jedi and a followup to the sequel trilogy bringing back Daisy Ridley as Rey.
I won’t hold my breath.
Beyond the Traverse
Looks like Pixar will finally get a much-needed win, as “Inside Out 2” is poised to blow past box-office projections this weekend
In a truly baffling turn of events, Skydance isn’t buying Paramount after all
Last week, I got into how the Paramount film studio fell from its peak
Amazon’s “The Boys” will end with its fifth season
Sony Pictures bought Alamo Drafthouse Cinema, the specialty theater chain. They better not fuck with the Season Pass! (I’m a loyal member)
Zack Snyder could make any movie he wanted at Netflix and is still releasing a director’s cut of “Rebel Moon”
If you missed my previous breakdown of why the movie is probably a disappointment for Netflix, and why Snyder is a bad investment if you’re looking build a franchise, read here
Great headline. I hadn't thought about it in terms of being like Star Trek, but that's a smart observation. Appealing to die-hards only isn't a growth business.