The Oscars could finally get its 'popular film' award: Best Picture
Plus: Predictions for this year's Oscar nominations.
In 2018, after record-low viewership for that year’s Oscars, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced it would present a new award at the next ceremony: Outstanding Achievement in Popular Film. The details were murky, and after outcry, the Academy scrapped the idea.
Ironically, a few films that could be deemed “popular” were nominated for best picture that year, including Marvel’s mega-hit “Black Panther,” the Queen biopic “Bohemian Rhapsody,” and Bradley Cooper’s “A Star Is Born.” It reinforced the main critique of the proposed “popular film” award, that such mainstream films should just be nominated for the Oscars’ top prize and not relegated to what could essentially be a participation trophy.
I personally didn’t see too much of a problem with the award itself. We should find ways to celebrate as many movies at the Oscars as possible! My main gripe was how the Academy would define the award. It shouldn’t just be based on box office; that’s already an award in itself. But if a movie beats the odds and performs beyond expectations, I don’t see the harm in recognizing that, as the history of the Oscars lacks “mainstream” or genre movies getting recognized in top categories. That has improved in recent years, with movies like “Black Panther,” “Joker,” and “Top Gun: Maverick” getting nominated for best picture; “Joker” won Joaquin Phoenix his Oscar, and the hit horror movie “Get Out” was nominated for best picture and won original screenplay. Even the X-Men movie “Logan” was nominated for adapted screenplay.
But despite those improvements, it’s been two decades since the biggest movie of the year also won best picture. The last to do it was “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” which topped both the US and worldwide box office. Nothing in those 20 years has even come close. Some of them could be considered hits on their own standards. Last year’s victor, “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” for instance, grossed over $140 million globally off of a $25 million budget, and is the studio A24’s highest-grossing film ever. But that’s still a fraction of 2022’s actual biggest movies, “Maverick” and “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which were also nominated for best picture.
It seems like it takes an undeniable juggernaut for the Academy to take notice and deem worthy of its top prize; a movie that combines mainstream appeal with the sophistication and artistry of what’s stereotypically considered “Oscar worthy.” “Return of the King” was the culmination of a trilogy’s-worth of Oscars, sweeping every category it was nominated for. At 1998’s Oscars, “Titanic” was also that kind of undeniable sensation, from a filmmaker with a proven track record of making impeccably well-crafted blockbusters that appealed to both Hollywood insiders and the masses.
This year, that movie is Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer.” Nolan is one of the last remaining “brand” filmmakers who can sell a movie on his name alone. James Cameron of “Titanic” and “Avatar,” “Get Out’s” Jordan Peele, and “Barbie” director Greta Gerwig are some others. And while “Oppenheimer” isn’t the highest-grossing movie of 2023 (that belongs to “Barbie,” both domestically and globally), it was third behind “Barbie” and “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” at the worldwide box office. It’s a three-hour biopic that grossed nearly a billion dollars. And it’s almost guaranteed to win best picture this year. Vulture and The Atlantic even had nearly identical headlines on the topic within the same week.
That brings us to Oscar nominations, which are announced on Tuesday. I expect “Oppenheimer” to get at least a dozen nods, followed by “Poor Things” and “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Below are my predictions (excluding the shorts categories), based on precursor nominations from SAG, PGA, DGA, and other guilds; analysis of predictions from professional awards pundits; and my own gut feelings.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
These are the 10 movies nominated by the Producers Guild, and they’ve been the 10 movies in the running all awards season long. The PGAs usually nominate more mainstream fare — this year “Across the Spider-Verse” seemed like a contender — but the fact it stuck with these 10 reinforces their strength.
Director
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
The Directors Guild went with Gerwig and “Poor Things” director Yorgos Lanthimos, but let’s call the latter this year’s potential Denis Villeneuve; he made a movie that will get a lot of below-the-line technical nominations, but will be pushed out of the director’s race thanks to a category that has favored international works in recent years. I think that gives the edge to either Glazer or Triet, so I decided to just go with both.
Lead Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Most experts see Bradley Cooper as a lock for “Maestro,” with DiCaprio or Domingo fighting for the fifth slot. But I think DiCaprio is in the more-liked movie, which gives him an edge, and while Domingo’s film has gone under the radar, I also think favor for “Maestro” has fallen in recent weeks. Cooper has positioned his costar Carey Mulligan as the lead of the movie; maybe that will hurt his chances, but it will be close.
Lead Actress
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie (Barbie)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Annete Bening would be the sixth contender here for “Nyad,” and she got the SAG nomination. But her costar in that little-seen movie, Jodie Foster, seems to be getting more acclaim. And Huller did amazing work in both “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest;” I expect her to be recognized for at least one of those films, and “Anatomy” is the showier performance.
Supporting actor
Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Charles Melton’s work in “May December” is a critical favorite, but his standing as a contender has fallen in recent weeks after losing out on nominations from both the BAFTAs and SAG. He still has a shot, but I think Brown, who is in a best picture contender and got a SAG nomination, edges him out. Willem Dafoe got the supporting nom from SAG for “Poor Things,” but I think the Academy will favor Ruffalo’s scene-stealing performance in that movie.
Supporting actress
Penelope Cruz (Ferarri)
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
This one’s tough, but I ultimately went with the same lineup as SAG. Rosamund Pike of “Saltburn” could show up here, as could Huller (again) for “Zone of Interest.” But the Academy loves Cruz, she’s incredible in “Ferarri,” and she got the SAG nomination. The other four seem like locks.
Adapted screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Original screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
May December
Past Lives
Saltburn
The screenplay categories were among the easiest to predict, especially adapted. There is room for error in original; I’m iffy on “Saltburn,” but writer/director Emerald Fennell is a former (recent) winner in this category, and “Saltburn” has been surging in popularity since it arrived on Prime Video last month. That could help its chances here. Another contender is Maestro, but the Academy likes to recognize more, um, “out there” movies in this category (also why I chose “May December”).
Animated feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
Four of these were nominated for the Annies’ (the animated-centric awards) top prize, but I slotted in “Elemental” over “Suzume.” I don’t see the Academy denying Pixar a nomination, even if the brand has lost some appeal recently.
Documentary feature
20 Days in Mariupol
American Symphony
Beyond Utopia
Stamped From the Beginning
Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
International feature
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Taste of Things (France)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (UK)
Film editing
Ferarri
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
Production design
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Wonka
The Zone of Interest
Costume design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Makeup and hairstyling
Golda
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Sound
Ferarri
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Visual effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Napoleon
Poor Things
Original score
The Boy and the Heron
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Original song
Dance the Night (Barbie)
I’m Just Ken (Barbie)
Keep It Movin’ (The Color Purple)
Road to Freedom (Rustin)
What Was I Made For? (Barbie)