The F1 Fantasy

Is Formula 1 popular enough to save Apple's movie business? Plus: Pixar, and Disney, has a big problem.

Brad Pitt in “F1” (Apple Original Films)

The Gist

• Formula 1 has apparently surged in popularity in the US, but its ratings are still timid.

• The “F1” movie will be more of a test of international box office, Brad Pitt’s star power, and premium formats.

• Plus: Pixar’s latest is flopping at the box office, another example of Disney’s post-pandemic struggle to launch new franchises.

“F1,” Apple’s Formula 1 racing drama starring Brad Pitt and directed by “Top Gun: Maverick” director Joseph Kosinski, starts rolling out in theaters worldwide this week.

Big-budget movies today can be made or broken by the whims of fandoms, and “F1” brings with it a fandom all its own. But is it big enough to save Apple’s movie ambitions? Or to convince larger Hollywood to keep taking bets on expensive star-driven vehicles (that aren’t directed by Christopher Nolan)?

Many headlines have asserted that Formula 1 has grown considerably in popularity in recent years, thanks in part to Netflix’s “Drive to Survive” series, and recent data makes that case. A Nielsen survey found it to be the fastest-growing global sport, with young women being its fastest-growing fan demographic (will they show up for Brad Pitt?) and Saudi Arabia being the region where interest is growing the most.

But the popularity hasn’t exactly been reflected in actual ratings, at least in the US. 2.3 million viewers tuned in live for the Monaco Grand Prix last month, a record for that race. The biggest live audience for an F1 race in the US was 3.1 million average viewers for the Miami Grand Prix last year.

To be fair, races occur at weird times in the US, such as at 9 am EST for the Monaco Grand Prix. Many American fans might be getting their fix elsewhere, like in social clips. And the Miami race didn’t even exist before 2022, showing how recent the sport’s expansion to the US is.

But it suggests the success of F1 may not necessarily come down to American fandom, but 1) International audiences and 2) Premium screens. In many ways, it’s shockingly similar to your typical franchise tentpole in that regard.

On the latter point, “F1” will presumably have Imax for two weeks until “Superman” opens on July 11, as “Jurassic World Rebirth, which opens July 2, isn’t playing in Imax. That could help “F1” a lot, as even casual viewers may be interested in seeing it on the biggest possible screen, similar to Kosinski’s “Maverick” and another adult-oriented drama, “Oppenheimer.”

Early projections for “F1’s” domestic opening weekend have been anywhere from under $50 million to $75 million, so let’s say $60 million. That would be impressive for a sports drama today, but its production cost has been reported to be $300 million (which Kosinski and producer Jerry Bruckheimer have disputed, saying it’s much lower). Regardless, it would be Apple’s biggest opening after financial disappointments like “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Argylle.”

Much has been made out of “F1” making or breaking Apple’s long-term theatrical plans, but it doesn’t have another full-fledged cinema release on the calendar this year (“All of You” and Spike Lee’s “Highest 2 Lowest” will get select theaters before quickly arriving on Apple TV+) or even next year.

So maybe it’s time for the movie/theater business to move on from the Apple fallacy: turns out the tech giant (probably) will not save you, and the occasional “F1” is just nice to have.

On paper, it has all of the ingredients of a hit in the making (that’s not an already established IP): based on a popular product, a beloved star, a filmmaker coming off a gigantic hit, and a has-to-be-seen-on-the-biggest-screen hook. If it doesn’t work, forget Apple — it’s the movie business itself that should be worried.

PLUS: Pixar problems

Life hits fast. A year after Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” became the highest-grossing American animated movie of all time, “Elio” opened over the weekend with the lowest box-office debut for a Pixar movie, with $21 million domestically ($35 million worldwide).

It’s less than even “Onward,” which opened a few days before the country shut down during the pandemic.

There are a myriad of reasons why “Elio” may flop, including poor marketing; opening soon after “Lilo and Stitch” and “How to Train Your Dragon” already drove plenty of kids/family business in recent weeks; and just the Pixar brand not being what it used to be, after years of straight-to-Disney+ releases.

Sure, “Elio” could have legs; “Elemental” managed to stretch out to nearly $500 million worldwide after a disappointing debut. But industry analyst David Gross wrote that the movie would “need to do a 6x or 7x multiple to put it in the league of Pixar’s other low-performing titles,” and he doesn’t see that happening.

“Elio” (Disney/Pixar)

But one thing remains clear: If it’s not a sequel to one of its beloved hits, Pixar movies will struggle. The studio’s four most successful movies are all sequels released in the last decade. Some of its lowest-grossing movies domestically — including, presumably, “Elio” — are all originals released since the pandemic (I’m including “Lightyear” in that group; it’s not a straight-up original, but it’s certainly not the Buzz we know nor is it even a typical “Toy Story” spinoff).

But this doesn’t seem to be a Pixar-specific problem. Even Disney-proper original animated movies in recent years have stumbled. Remember “Wish”? Or “Strange World”? Probably not. Meanwhile, “Moana 2” earned over $1 billion even though the songs sucked and it was initially conceived as a TV show.

I wrote last year that Disney needed to re-learn how to create new franchises and it couldn’t just rely on endless sequels, noting that it would face real tests this year after a blockbuster 2024. Indeed, it’s largely failing those tests in launching new properties so far in 2025.

For Pixar in particular, Puck’s Matt Belloni made an interesting point in his recent newsletter that maybe the studio should consider adapting pre-existing IP like popular books. Its prided itself on its original movies, which is ironic considering Disney became a behemoth off the backs of fairy tales. There’s no reason for Pixar to be so stubborn.

Beyond the Traverse

🎮 Warner Bros. Games restructured under its four key franchises: Harry Potter, GOT, Mortal Kombat and DC.

🤖 Disney and Universal sued an AI firm, Midjourney, for copyright infringement.

🧟‍♂️ Kaitlyn Dever is confirmed to lead “The Last of Us” season three as Abby, which I’m sure everyone will be totally cool about.

🕷️ Jon Bernthal’s Punisher will appear in “Spider-Man: Brand New Day.”