Survive 'til '25? Let's take a peek.
The movie industry's mantra this year is to just make it to the next. But how much promise does the 2025 box office really have?
The Gist
The mantra for the movie and theatrical industries this year is “Survive ‘til 25,” as last year’s Hollywood strikes upended the 2024 release calendar.
But how much promise does 2025 really have?
The number of movie releases will likely increase, and there are some surefire hits on the calendar — but also plenty of big risks.
The mantra among the movie and exhibition industries this year is a rather bleak one: “Survive ‘til ‘25.” It reflects the disruption to the theatrical release calendar that the Hollywood strikes last year had on 2024, as the industry was still coming out of the disruption of the pandemic. Productions were shut down and releases were pushed.
Now, the 2024 North American box office will most likely come in below last year’s $9 billion, despite the colossal success of “Inside Out 2,” promising prospects for “Despicable Me 4” and “Deadpool and Wolverine” this summer, and potentially “Wicked” and the “Joker” sequel later this year.
I’m of the mind that this is just the new normal; I’m not sure if the NA box office will ever again reach the highs of the record $11.9 billion it did in 2018. And it’s not just because of the strikes or the pandemic. People’s viewing habits have just plain shifted, and a movie’s success or failure is far more unpredictable. The bar has been lowered, and right now it’s at $9 billion… Is that sustainable for the business?
Shawn Robbins, founder of Box Office Theory, thinks there’s a good chance for the 2025 total to at least clear that threshold: “That's the realistic standard bearer for now, and it could go higher if franchises like Marvel and original animated tentpoles return to form with audiences while escapism-driven spectacles, horror films and other genres need to live up to their aggregate power of variety.”
Like any year, there is reason for optimism in 2025, reason for some caution, and reason for cautious optimism. But overall, the actual number of releases should turn a corner, which the theatrical industry implores is the biggest factor in getting its business back on track. Comscore estimates that the number of wide releases on the ‘25 calendar right now is already in the mid-80s, which will surely increase as more films get dated.
“I’m bullish on ’25 for sure,” Paul Dergarabedian, Comscore’s senior media analyst, told me. “When the system is firing on all cylinders, things work smoothly. ’24 has been moving in fits and starts because the industry could not get its groove and a sustainable momentum going until now. When that doesn’t kick in until June, that’s a problem.”
Still, now that we are half way through this year, I took a look at how the calendar looks right now for an early assessment of what to expect in 2025, a year that the industry has put so much pressure on.
“A few calendar gaps lacking obvious event- or event-lite films still stand out, but not to the extent of recent years which saw significant dips in content and attendance during the winter and fall months,” Robbins told me. “The positioning of ‘Avatar 3’ at year's end is also an automatic advantage to next year's bottom line.”
With that, let’s take a closer look:
Thought Hollywood was done with superheroes? Think again
“Deadpool and Wolverine” — which will surely be one of the biggest movies of the year — is the only Marvel Cinematic Universe movie coming to theaters this year. It’s the first time a single MCU movie will be released in a given year since 2012’s “Avengers”; since 2017, Marvel has released three or four movies a year (not counting 2020, of course).
After taking a step back to recalibrate over some big misses — remember “The Marvels”? — Marvel will be back in full force again next year with four releases: “Captain America: Brave New World” in February, “Thunderbolts” in May, “The Fantastic Four” in July, and “Blade” in November. The latter has been mired in behind-the scenes turmoil unbecoming of a Marvel Studios production, so we’ll see how that shakes out.
While “Deadpool and Wolverine” will surely be a massive hit, it won’t exactly be the de facto assurance the industry needs to know whether Marvel has its groove back. Deadpool is already a popular franchise and this is throwing in Hugh Jackman’s Wolverine. We’ll have a better idea of the overall audience perception of the Marvel Studios brand next year, when Captain America 4 and “Thunderbolts” carry TV show baggage; the Fantastic Four is rebooted for the second time in as many decades; and “Blade” finally sees the light of day after a series of troubling headlines.
It’s not just Marvel looking to make a comeback next year. James Gunn’s “Superman,” the first movie out of his and Peter Safran’s new DC movie and TV universe, hits theaters on July 11. The previous incarnation of the DC movie universe went on an impressively sad series of box-office duds with “Black Adam,” “Shazam! Fury of the Gods,” “Blue Beetle,” “The Flash,” and “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.” It’s safe to say that the DC brand for the average moviegoer is tarnished, and that a lot is riding on “Superman.” Fortunately, Gunn is not Zack Snyder, so it already has that going for it.
And then there’s the Sony Marvel universe. Sony has dated an untitled Marvel film for June 27, but these Spider-Man offshoots like “Morbius” and “Madame Web” have been box-office disasters aside for the “Venom” films.
Will animated movies keep up the momentum?
“Inside Out 2” is currently restoring some much-needed faith in Pixar. And “Despicable Me 4” opened this weekend with $75 million over the three-day and over $120 million for the five-day July 4th holiday, on par with the previous film.
But as a sequel to a beloved Pixar film and the latest in a popular franchise, success was already baked in to these movies. Like Marvel, next year will be the real test for Pixar, as it is releasing an original film, “Elio,” on June 13. For comparison, Pixar’s “Elemental” slowly but surely earned close to $500 million worldwide last year. If this can get over that threshold, it will probably be deemed a success; it would be even better if it can reach the highs of other recent, pre-pandemic Pixar originals like “Coco,” which made over $800 million globally. But are those numbers still possible for an original animated film in today’s market?
Disney Animation will also release “Zootopia 2” next November. The division is betting on sequels to popular originals (“Moana 2,” originally conceived as a TV series, will debut later this year) after misfires with 2022’s “Strange World” ($74 million globally) and last year’s “Wish” ($255 million).
Universal, which has been dominating animation, might have a softer 2025. It will release DreamWorks’ “Bad Guys 2” in August, as the first performed modestly with $250 million worldwide. And there’s no Illumination titles on the calendar yet, though that could change as it has movies like “Sing 3” and “Secret Life of Pets 3” in development. Neither of those would reach the highs of the studio’s “Super Mario Bros.” or “Despicable Me/Minions” movies, though.
The horror genre is facing headwinds. Can it make a comeback?
“A Quiet Place: Day One” earned $52 million last weekend, a franchise best, overcoming some recent headaches for the horror genre.
But “Quiet Place” is also less a horror franchise than it is sci-fi/thriller, and it’s the third entry in what have been consistent box-office draws. Elsewhere, the horror genre in 2024 hasn’t been as reliable as years past. Let’s take a look:
“Night Swim” — $55 million worldwide ($32 million dom.)
“Imaginary” — $39 million ww ($28 million dom.)
“Immaculate” — $27 million ww ($15 million dom., and that’s with Sydney Sweeney starring!)
“The First Omen” — $54 million ww ($20 million dom.)
“Abigail” — $42 million ww ($26 million dom.)
“The Strangers: Chapter 1” — $43 million ww ($35 million dom.)
“The Watchers” — $51 million ww ($19 million dom.)
“The Exorcism” — $7 million ww
You get the idea.
Horror typically has a low-risk, high-reward value considering the low budgets of the movies. But the above titles didn’t live up to the standard set by recent years — notice how none of them cracked $100 million globally. This comes after Blumhouse’s rare, colossal misfire last year with “The Exorcist: Believer,” which earned $136 million globally after Universal, which has a distribution deal with Blumhouse, paid $400 million for the rights to make a new “Exorcist” trilogy.
On deck next year are a lot of sequels: “28 Years Later” and “M3gan 2.0” are both scheduled for June, a week apart from each other. It’ll be 18 years since the last movie in the former series, and 23 years since the original, “28 Days Later.” “Years” has the benefit of returning star Cillian Murphy, fresh off his Oscar win for “Oppenheimer,” but it remains to be seen if that will make him a major draw at a time when the appeal of movie stars has shifted so dramatically. “M3gan” was a surprise smash, grossing $180 million worldwide off of a $12 million budget, so a sequel was a no brainer for Universal and Blumhouse/Atomic Monster.
Universal and Blumhouse are busy next year, and also releasing sequels to “Five Nights at Freddy’s” and “The Black Phone,” which grossed $291 million and $161 million globally, respectively; as well as “Wolf Man” in January as part of Blumhouse’s reimagining of Universal’s classic monsters. If it performs in the realm of 2020’s “The Invisible Man,” which made $145 million globally in 2020 before the pandemic, then that will be a win.
Then there’s Lionsgate’s “Saw XI” in September, hot off the heels of last year’s “Saw X,” which brought the franchise back to life, and Sony’s “I Know What You Did Last Summer” reboot, a franchise that has been dormant on the big screen for nearly 30 years (a straight-to-video release came out in 2006). I have more faith in the former than the latter, which is bringing back original stars Freddie Prinze Jr and Jennifer Love Hewitt. I don’t know if IKWYDLS warrants a legacy-quel, and I’d have more confidence if it was a modern-day reimagining for the TikTok generation that could inspire the kind of viral marketing that “M3gan” did.
Some other IP bets could be risky, but there are intriguing originals with promise
If last year taught us anything, it’s that audiences were exhausted with installments in long-running franchises, from “Fast and Furious” to “Transformers.” “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning” struggled at the box office last year with $567 million globally. The next installment’s budget is likely ballooning past the $300 million that “Dead Reckoning” cost, thanks to pandemic and strike-related expenses, putting even more pressure on it to perform well.
Universal is fast-tracking a new Jurassic movie for next year, directed by “Rogue One” filmmaker Gareth Edwards. The three previous “Jurassic World” movies each grossed over $1 billion, so this is a safe bet, especially if it’s actually…good?
Disney’s “Snow White” opens in March. The company’s live-action remakes — most recently “The Little Mermaid,” which earned $570 million globally — have lost some magic post-pandemic.
That’s a lot of IP talk. We can’t forget original big bets, like Apple and Warner Bros.’ “F1,” a Formula 1 movie starring Brad Pitt, which is coming to theaters next summer. Apple has been refreshingly consistent with putting its big-budget movies in theaters, but the results, compared to their massive costs, have been lacking. Martin Scorsese’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” cost $200 million to make and earned $157 million globally. Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” cost similarly to make and performed better with over $200 million in ticket sales, but still not enough to profit.
“F1” might be Apple’s most mainstream movie yet, though. Formula 1 racing has shot up in popularity in recent years, thanks in part to Netflix’s “Drive to Survive” docuseries. Adult dramas have struggled at the box office, “Oppenheimer” notwithstanding. But if “F1” can appeal to the diehard racing fans while also bringing in casual moviegoers who don’t go to the movies a lot, with a boost from premium formats like Imax, then it has a good chance to succeed (It’s basically the same blueprint as director Joseph Kosinski’s “Top Gun: Maverick”). The marketing campaign has already started a year out from the movie’s release, with the first teaser (above) dropping on Sunday, a sign of confidence.
Another original film I’m keeping an eye on is “Black Panther” director Ryan Coogler’s next, to be released by Warner Bros. on March 7. It’s been described as a supernatural vampire movie and Coogler is re-teaming with his frequent collaborator Michael B. Jordan: sign me up. But behind the scenes, Coogler has also reportedly struck a unique deal in which ownership of the film will revert back to him after 25 years, which is pretty much non-existent today. Not that the masses will care at all about this tidbit of news, but it does heighten the intrigue of the movie.
Some other stray observations:
Where’s the video-game wave? Warner Bros.’ “Minecraft,” based on the hit video game, is the only game-based movie on the calendar for next year right now, aside from the “Five Nights” sequel. That could definitely change, though, as there is plenty of stuff in development.
The third “Avatar” will surely close out 2025 in the same big way that “No Way Home” in 2021 and “Avatar: The Way of Water” did in 2022. The January box office is typically a dumpster fire, and a big holiday release in the prior calendar year can make up a lot of ground. That could happen this year with “Mufasa: The Lion King.” And it most certainly did not happen last December with “Aquaman and the Lost Kingom.”
There are still some big gaps on the ‘25 calendar, with August in particular looking like a desert.
If 2025 doesn’t live up to expectations, expect full-on panic — but also the spin that 2026 could be the year for things to get back on track, a full calendar year removed from the strikes. We’ll get the “Super Mario Bros.” sequel; the end of the “Fast and Furious” saga (though “Fast X” left plenty to be desired at the box office last year); the fifth “Avengers” movie slated for May; and the return of Star Wars to the big screen with a “Mandalorian” movie (though I won’t hold my breath).
This edition went long, so I’ll skip the usual news roundup today.
Anything you’re particularly looking forward to next year? Anything I missed you wish I focused on? Let me know in the comments, and thanks for reading.
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