Mickey 17 - Obviously this movie has a lot of negativity to fight.But the release date is a wide-enough berth to suggest IMAX dominance for a few weeks if the marketing is right. I think, given the paucity of late Feb/early March offerings, you'd have to be a real incompetent exec to not be able to goose this to $250 million worldwide (which probably still wouldn't be profitable, actually).
Sinners - Black audiences are severely under-served in the blockbuster marketplace this year, so I could see an opening for this one. The period setting might hurt global results, but domestic results of $175 million are plausible, particularly considering the intention is to start a franchise.
28 Years Later -- There was that buzzy trailer goosing things, and people have fond memories of that first movie. In a horror-light summer, I could see this opening massively, and then falling off considerably, but enough to secure at least $200 million worldwide, and possibly much more.
M3gan 2.0 -- The first one did $181 million, and this one is supposed to be a slight genre shift to a more action-comedy vein. It's a gamble, but I could see it paying off. Someone over at the studio has to be thinking they'll double that worldwide number.
F1 -- Apparently the budget for this is $300 million or something? Given the global popularity of Formula One, it's not strange to me to imagine a gross of $150 million domestic plus $400 million internationally.
Him -- This is a bit of a wildcard, but it seems like, potentially, the biggest September movie. Jordan Peele is producing, and from what I heard it could do "Smile" numbers.
Michael -- This is the biggest oversight. Lionsgate is talking about this taking in a cool billion, and I believe them. If ANY music biopic is going to make a billion dollars, it'll be this one. I honestly think it would have to be terrible to not break ten figures globally. Which is entirely possible given it's an Antoine Fuqua movie. .
A couple I think you're missing:
Mickey 17 - Obviously this movie has a lot of negativity to fight.But the release date is a wide-enough berth to suggest IMAX dominance for a few weeks if the marketing is right. I think, given the paucity of late Feb/early March offerings, you'd have to be a real incompetent exec to not be able to goose this to $250 million worldwide (which probably still wouldn't be profitable, actually).
Sinners - Black audiences are severely under-served in the blockbuster marketplace this year, so I could see an opening for this one. The period setting might hurt global results, but domestic results of $175 million are plausible, particularly considering the intention is to start a franchise.
28 Years Later -- There was that buzzy trailer goosing things, and people have fond memories of that first movie. In a horror-light summer, I could see this opening massively, and then falling off considerably, but enough to secure at least $200 million worldwide, and possibly much more.
M3gan 2.0 -- The first one did $181 million, and this one is supposed to be a slight genre shift to a more action-comedy vein. It's a gamble, but I could see it paying off. Someone over at the studio has to be thinking they'll double that worldwide number.
F1 -- Apparently the budget for this is $300 million or something? Given the global popularity of Formula One, it's not strange to me to imagine a gross of $150 million domestic plus $400 million internationally.
Him -- This is a bit of a wildcard, but it seems like, potentially, the biggest September movie. Jordan Peele is producing, and from what I heard it could do "Smile" numbers.
Michael -- This is the biggest oversight. Lionsgate is talking about this taking in a cool billion, and I believe them. If ANY music biopic is going to make a billion dollars, it'll be this one. I honestly think it would have to be terrible to not break ten figures globally. Which is entirely possible given it's an Antoine Fuqua movie. .
Fromtheyardtothearthouse.substack.com