Predicting the biggest movies of the 2025 box office

From "Avatar 3" to "Superman," these will likely be the top movies at the box office this year.

“Captain America: Brave New World” (Disney/Marvel Studios)

The Gist

• 2025 is the first full year since the Hollywood strikes that will have an unaffected film slate in theaters.

• The release calendar has a few surefire hits, as well as plenty of question marks.

• I did my best to predict what the biggest movies of the year might be, from “Avatar 3” to “Zootopia 2.”

We’re officially a full year removed from the Hollywood strikes of 2023, meaning we’re in the no-excuses year for the movie business. Of course, something will undoubtedly come up that causes the industry and its advocates to say "actually, next year is the year” (which might actually kind of true!).

But for now, Hollywood has a film slate on its hands this year with a few surefire hits and a lot of wild cards. Can the MCU build off of the momentum from “Deadpool and Wolverine”? Can “Superman” successfully reignite the DCU? Can Tom Cruise run his way back to box-office glory?

These are all questions I’m thinking about this new year, so I took a stab at predicting what the biggest movies of the year might be and even what their grand box-office totals could look like.

Below, I ranked them by their predicted worldwide box office (WW) and included an expectation for the domestic gross, too (US). Just keep in mind the old mantra: Nobody knows anything.

“Jurassic World Rebirth” (Universal)

Sure things

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash — $2.5 billion WW, $720 million US (Disney)

   This would put the third “Avatar” movie in the top three all time, surpassing its predecessor. “Avatar” has both raised a new generation of fans and appeals to more casual moviegoers. And I think the China numbers will be bonkers thanks to anticipation and the influx of Imax screens there in recent years. The China box office was hit hard last year, but this franchise is one of the few Hollywood properties Chinese audiences still eat up.

2. Zootopia 2 — $1.15 billion WW, $425 million US (Disney)

   The first “Zootopia” cracked a billion dollars, so this sequel should have no problem hitting that mark. The question is how high it could go. I don’t see it doing “Inside Out 2” numbers, but I do think it has a greater foothold internationally than even “Moana.”

3. Jurassic World Rebirth — $1.12 billion, $390 million US (Universal)

   Those dinosaurs really can’t be stopped. The last movie, “Dominion,” managed to crawl to a billion bucks despite terrible reviews. So, with a new star-studded cast (including Scarlett Johansson) and a new filmmaker behind the camera (“Rogue One” director Gareth Edwards), I could see this squeezing right between “Fallen Kingdom” and “Dominion” in terms of total box-office gross.

Safe bets

4. Wicked: For Good — $905 million WW, $550 million US (Universal)

   “Wicked” is currently doing very good business in theaters, but because of subpar international numbers, it isn’t as big as some might have expected. But I see this first part as being solid global marketing for part two. If it continues to gain momentum this awards season, that will further lay the ground work for the sequel.

5. Superman — $830 million WW, $350 million US (Warner Bros.)

   Warner Bros. has a lot riding on James Gunn’s “Superman.” The character hasn’t exactly been a huge box-office draw over the last four decades, but the recent teaser trailer did enough to convince me that this thing could finally chart a bright future for the DCU. Gunn managed to turn little-known characters, the Guardians of the Galaxy, into a commercially viable property for Marvel. I think he can do the same for the original superhero.

6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps — $745 million WW, $335 million US (Disney)

   The Fantastic Four have a lot of baggage, with three box-office flops over the last two decades. But Marvel Studios has successfully rehabilitated characters like Spider-Man; I have a good feeling about “First Steps” with its dynamite cast and the potential for some “Avengers: Doomsday” table setting.

7. How to Train Your Dragon — $715 million WW, $230 million US (Universal)

   Universal is pulling a Disney and remaking one of its animated hits for live-action. Will it work? The HTTYD series is popular, but not on the scale of some Disney hits. Yet, the international numbers are very solid across the original animated trilogy. I suspect that will be the case here, too.

Less safe (but still good) bets

8. Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning — $685 million WW, $210 million US (Paramount)

   “Dead Reckoning” didn’t rise to the box-office highs of “Fallout,” but I see “Final Reckoning” at least doing better than its predecessor given the apparent finality of it all. The M:I franchise is successful on the international stage, which will go far in lifting this thing up.

9. Captain American: Brave New World — $635 million WW, $285 million US (Disney)

   I’m very iffy on this movie, given it’s introducing a new Captain America for the big screen after first introducing him in a TV series. But it’s still an MCU movie with a Hulk, and will be the first Marvel Studios film release in seven months. I can see it doing closer to “Winter Soldier” numbers, which is still decent, but not at the highs of 2018-2019 era MCU. Maybe that’s just what we should expect from now on except for the “big” and “important” Marvel movies.

10. Thunderbolts — $580 million WW, $225 million US (Disney)

    Another MCU movie I’m hesitant about, given it stars secondary characters and audiences may have missed a lot of the backstory if they didn’t keep up with a couple TV shows. Like I said above, maybe it’s time we start having lower expectations for Marvel; if these movies perform more like early MCU entries, that’s still fine, even if it’s not impressive.

Wild Cards

11. Snow White — $565 million, $210 million US (Disney)

12. Lilo and Stitch — $550 million WW, $275 million US (Disney)

    These two Disney remakes could either be huge hits or outright flops. I can see “Lilo” doing better domestically while “Snow White” performs better overall globally. But given how Disney’s last couple remakes have performed — “Little Mermaid” and “Mufasa” — I’m setting the expectations somewhat low for these.

13. Elio — $485 million WW, $170 million US (Disney)
    Tough to predict how this Pixar original will fare. Can it ride the wave of “Inside Out 2”? Maybe. But I’m being cautious and seeing closer to “Elemental” figures for now.

14. A Minecraft Movie — $370 million WW; $180 million US (Warner Bros.)

    It’s nearly impossible to know how this movie will perform. The fact that it’s not completely animated is baffling; it won’t do anywhere near “Super Mario” numbers. “Minecraft” the game is immensely popular, but there are no characters that kids will be attached to or that adults will be nostalgic for. The attraction of the game is just that: it’s a game. It really depends on how much the Minecraft name alone will persuade people. For now, again, I’m setting expectations low.

Beyond the Traverse

🇨🇳 The China box office, which had overtaken North America’s in the early pandemic years, saw a sharp decline in 2024.

😎 Seems like Will Smith is not starring in a new Matrix movie, despite his cryptic Insta post suggesting as such.

💥 Sony talked up its investments in anime during CES in Vegas this week.

👽 The “Alien: Romulus” director says the CGI for THAT character has been fixed for the home-video release.