Survive 'til '26?
The movie business's mantra this year is "Survive til '25," but 2026 might be the first post-pandemic year to hold pre-pandemic promise.
The Gist
Hollywood’s mantra this year was “Survive ‘til ‘25” after last year’s dual actors’ and writers’ strikes upended this year’s release calendar.
But while 2025 will certainly have more releases on the calendar, there are also riskier IP bets.
2026 might be the first post-pandemic year to hold real pre-pandemic promise, with Avengers, Star Wars, Spider-Man, Super Mario, Nolan, and Batman movies scheduled.
The movie business has been feasting well since Thanksgiving. “Moana 2” is already nearing $300 million domestically after just 12 days in theaters, a feat “Wicked” will cross this weekend.
But the holiday hubbub followed a dreadful fall, with very few big titles releasing and a significant bomb in “Joker 2.” And despite the Thanksgiving trifecta of “Moana 2,” “Wicked,” and “Gladiator II” (oh my), the overall domestic box office for the year through this weekend is down nearly 7% from the same point last year (and 24% from the pre-pandemic average), according to industry analyst David A. Gross. That’s with a similar number of wide releases as last year, too: 82 films have opened wide (in at least 2,000 theaters) so far this year compared to 84 at this point in 2023, according to Mike Polydoros, CEO of cinema marketing company PaperAirplane Media.
Hollywood was prepared for this, though. After the dual writers’ and actors’ strikes last year, the Town’s mantra became “Survive til ‘25.” The thinking is that 2025 will see a more consistent release schedule; indeed, nearly 100 wide-release movies are on the calendar already.
The new year will almost certainly be more successful than this year with a steadier stream of movies after the strikes derailed output for this year. But while the industry is eagerly anticipating ‘25, it’s 2026 that is shaping up to be the first post-pandemic year to hold real pre-pandemic promise.
I’m not trying to make excuses for any lackluster business at the movies: “Barbenheimer” and this Thanksgiving, in particular, proved — after much pandemic era handwringing — that theatrical movies are the dominant form of film distribution. But I do think, on paper, the 2025 IP-driven tentpoles on the calendar look much riskier than those set for 2026, a year that will see the return of a bevy of film brands with a proven ability to turn audiences out to theaters.
Yes, some tried-and-true franchises don’t necessarily have the pull they once did in the post-pandemic market, something I’ve noted ad nauseum; new entries in the Fast Saga, Transformers, and even MCU have flailed. It’s why I wrote recently that Hollywood studios need to prioritize developing “new” IP like Barbie, Super Mario, and Wicked (even Disney). But I would still take Avengers over Thunderbolts.
Speaking of, after releasing only one movie this year with the mega-hit “Deadpool and Wolverine,” Disney’s Marvel has three movies on deck for ‘25 that are facing uphill battles: “Captain America: Brave New World” in February, “Thunderbolts” in May, and “Fantastic Four: First Steps” in July.
As I noted last week, audiences haven’t been kind recently to comic-book movies starring secondary characters, and “Thunderbolts” is also asking the audience to know characters from several previous movies and TV shows. “Brave New World” is introducing a new Captain America to the big screen six years after “Endgame” and four after “Falcon and the Winter Soldier.” And the Fantastic Four has largely been a cursed property, with three critical and box-office misses in the last two decades.
So yeah, I think “Avengers: Doomsday” and the fourth MCU Spider-Man, both set for 2026, are safer bets (on paper). Sure, Robert Downey Jr’s return to the MCU as Doctor Doom may seem like an act of desperation, but it’s also a savvy business move that the fans ate up, and with its release on May 1, it’s set to kick off the summer movie season in classic Marvel fashion. And the last Spider-Man movie, “No Way Home,” was the first pandemic-era release to have a real impact on moviegoing, grossing nearly $2 billion worldwide. Its sequel is dated for July 24, 2026.
If you want to read more of my analysis of the 2025 slate, you can find it here. For now, let’s look at the rest of 2026:
Last year, “Super Mario Bros.” was the second-biggest movie at the box office (behind “Barbie”) with over $1.3 billion worldwide. Its sequel is sure to be another blockbuster. (April 3)
Steven Spielberg hasn’t exactly been a hit maker in his later career, but he’s still made some of the biggest and most beloved movies of all time. His next feature is said to be a sci-fi film, and if he’s getting back to his “roots,” then it might be enough to get people out to the theater. (May 15)
After seven years, Star Wars will finally return to the big screen with “Mandalorian and Grogu.” Of all the Star Wars films that Lucasfilm has announced (that are probably going nowhere), this was the safest play. (May 22)
The eleventh installment in the main Fast Saga is intended to “conclude” this iteration of the franchise. The previous movie, “Fast X,” disappointed in the US, but the international numbers are still healthy and helped get the movie over $700 million globally. If Universal successfully positions this as the “final” Fast movie, it could re-ignite enthusiasm for the franchise. (Undated, but expected in June)
If James Gunn’s “Superman” next year works, then it will position “Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow” nicely. And while Hollywood has underestimated female audiences for years, they’ve proven with the likes of “Barbie,” “Wicked,” and “It Ends With Us” that they show up in droves for movies made and marketed to them; can “Supergirl” be one of those movies? (June 26)
It will be 16 years since the last “Shrek” movie when “Shrek 5” debuts, and I’d be willing to bet millennial nostalgia will be in overdrive for this one. Even the fourth movie, “Shrek Forever After,” grossed over $750 million globally. (July 1)
The aforementioned “Moana 2” is currently blowing up the box office, and a live-action “Moana” remake is set for 2026. Disney’s remakes seem to be past their prime, and a Moana remake only a decade from the original animated release seems like a desperate cash grab. But hey, it could work: “Moana” is obviously one of Disney’s biggest properties right now, and if kids beg their parents to see this, then it will be a hit. (July 10)
Christopher Nolan will follow up his Oscar-winning, near-billion-dollar-grossing “Oppenheimer” with a new movie in 2026. The plot is under wraps right now, but the cast is stacked: Matt Damon, Tom Holland, Zendaya, Anne Hathaway, Lupita Nyong’o, and Charlize Theron. No filmmaker today gets butts in seats for non-IP movies like Nolan. (July 17)
“The Batman” earned over $700 million in 2022, the rare DC hit in recent years. Its sequel will have to overcome the DC baggage, and any potential confusion over whether it’s part of James Gunn’s main DC universe, but I never bet against a Batman movie (“The Flash” doesn’t count). (October 2)
Jordan Peele, along with Nolan, is one of few filmmakers today that can get audiences in theaters based on their name alone. “Nope” didn’t perform as well as “Get Out” and “Us,” but his next will be his first film in four years. (October 23)
Greta Gerwig joins Nolan and Peele as one of those “brand-name directors.” Her “Barbie” followup is a “Chronicles of Narnia” movie for Netflix, and while the streaming giant has been allergic to theatrical releases, it’s reportedly considering a robust Imax release. (Thanksgiving potentially)
The first two movies in the Dwayne Johnson-starring “Jumanji” reboot series grossed over $1.7 billion combined. This will be the first installment since 2019, a year that produced many blockbuster hits that eventually gave way to sequel bombs. Will the curse continue? While The Rock’s star is fading, I think this series could still have some juice left in it. (December 11)
I wouldn’t say the “Ice Age” franchise has same kind of appeal as the likes of Shrek, but it could have a similar pull for people like myself who grew up loving the original movie. Surprisingly, the series was consistently popular at the box office across its first five movies. And with those now on Disney+, they could find a brand-new generation of young fans that could benefit this new entry, which will be the first in 10 years for the franchise. (December 18)
Beyond the Traverse
🎯 David Ayer just can’t let his “Suicide Squad Ayer Cut” go. Something tells me DC will not be interested this time.
⚔️George RR Martin finally admits, sort of, that maybe he’ll never finish “Winds of Winter.”
🚀 Disney can’t release a Star Wars movie, but Paramount can get a Star Trek movie made…just straight to Parmount+.