The 2020s MVIP Awards
The Most Valuable Intellectual Property of the decade, so far.
The Gist
While this weekend is breaking Memorial Day records at the box office, it’s still a reminder that Hollywood needs to foster new franchises.
I looked at the “new” IP that’s come to theaters so far this decade, and ranked them on their value (according to completely unscientific criteria).
One things is clear: The video game era of movie blockbusters is here.
This week it dawned on me that we are over halfway through this dreadful decade already. I then started thinking about a mid-way “check in” on movie franchises, which would also serve as a post-pandemic report card on what’s in and what’s out.
The 2010s were marked by the ascension of the Marvel Cinematic Universe and a rapid drumbeat of new entries from the likes of the Fast and Furious and Transformers series.
But the 2020s have looked decidedly different. Tried-and-true franchises are showing their age; the MCU can still produce a hit like “Deadpool and Wolverine,” but Marvel isn’t a sure thing anymore. Nor is the Fast Saga, Transformers, or any other universe that defined the previous decade at the movies.
We also don’t quite know what has replaced those things — but we have a good idea of what audiences want. New-to-the-big-screen IP like Barbie, Wicked, Minecraft, Dune, and Super Mario (we’re not counting the previous incarnations of those last two) have prevailed over the old guard.
So then I got thinking some more, about the “most valuable” IP of the decade so far — the MVIP, if you will. The stuff with the most potential or has already proven itself. Here’s my criteria for what was eligible to be considered:
The first movie in the series, or potential series, must have been released between 2020 and now.
The movie(s) must be based on pre-existing material (but no remakes). As much as I’d like to include “Sinners,” it’s hard to evaluate a movie’s future franchise potential if there are no follow ups currently planned.
If the movie is not based on pre-existing material, then a sequel must have already been announced or released.
The first movie must have made at least $100 million domestically at the box office.
No movies based on books or true events, unless the book is part of a series (no to “Oppenheimer,” but yes to “It Ends With Us”).
No movies that were already part of a cinematic universe (no MCU, even new characters like Shang-Chi).
The one exception to these criteria I allowed: Avatar. The first movie came out in 2009, but the majority of its sequels will be released this decade. There was enough time between the original and its first sequel that I felt I could count it as a “new franchise”; and unlike “legacy sequels,” like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” its future sequels have been officially confirmed and have release dates.
This weekend seemed like a fitting time to visit this topic; one three-decade franchise, “Mission: Impossible,” is (seemingly) coming to an end. Meanwhile, Disney dropped yet another live-action remake of a beloved animated film, “Lilo and Stitch.”
While both of these movies are performing well, they also show that Hollywood needs new franchises.
Before we get into it, a couple notes on the stats, which I provide to give a somewhat full view of the value of a movie/franchise (box office, streaming popularity, awards recognition, audience and critics’ sentiment, etc):
While the eligibility was $100 million domestic, I noted the worldwide (WW) box office for each movie/franchise, to give a better view of their value.
The Rotten Tomatoes scores reflect critics scores; CinemaScore is a much better indicator of audience appeal, which I also included.
Profitability numbers are based on Deadline’s annual blockbuster rankings.
Streaming views are based on Nielsen figures and are US-based only. But I think it’s important to give a snapshot of streaming popularity in this day and age, as a movie has a long lifecycle after theaters.
I took these stats into account when ranking each property, but it ultimately came down to my own personal feeling, as well as how they perform among young people, which fuel so much of a movie’s success today. So take it with a grain of salt, as this isn’t entirely scientific. But I had fun.
Maybe in another five-plus years I’ll revisit this list. But for now, here’s the “new” movie IP that’s come to theaters so far this decade, ranked from least to most “valuable.”
14. Bullet Train (Sony)
Based on: Books
Combined WW box office: $239M (1 movie)
Average box office: $239M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 53%
CinemaScore: B+
Profitability: N/A
Streaming views: 701M mins (first 2 days)
~5.5M viewers (Netflix)
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Low
Yeah, despite finding an audience on Netflix, I didn’t see this being a big enough hit in theaters to convince Sony to make another.
13. Jungle Cruise (Disney)
Based on: Theme park ride
Combined WW box office: $221M (1 movie)
Average box office: $221M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 62%
CinemaScore: A-
Profitability: N/A
Streaming views: 908M mins (first 3 days)
~7M viewers (Disney+)
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Low
Two decades ago, Disney struck gold by turning its theme park attraction Pirates of the Caribbean into a blockbuster movie franchise (I was surprised to learn that even the derided fifth movie in 2017 earned nearly $800 million worldwide). But the company has struggled to capture that magic for other properties, including “Jungle Cruise,” which seemed to come and go with little fanfare in 2021. And even if Dwayne Johnson is seemingly Gen Z’s favorite actor (according to one survey, anyway), there’s no denying that his reputation has taken a hit in recent years; after Warner Bros.’ “Black Adam” bombed, he’s retreated (for the most part) from blockbuster spectacle back to the WWE and more prestige fare, like an upcoming turn in A24 and Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine.”
12. It Ends With Us (Sony)
Based on: Theme park ride
Combined WW box office: $221M (1 movie)
Average box office: $221M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 54%
CinemaScore: A-
Profitability: $207M
Streaming views: 977M mins (first week)
~7.5M viewers (Netflix)
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Low
“It Ends With Us” was the rare romance/adult drama hit these days. But the ensuing legal fight between its stars, Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni, has left a bad taste in people’s mouths. While the drama could inflate interest in a sequel (the next book in the series is called “It Starts With Us”), it seems more likely to dampen it.
11. Uncharted (Sony)
Based on: Video games
Combined WW box office: $407M (1 movie)
Average box office: $407M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 41%
CinemaScore: B+
Profitability: N/A
Streaming views: 996M mins (first 3 days)
~8.5M viewers (Netflix)
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Low
“Uncharted” got in on the video game movie craze early, but the IP has been on standby for the last three years since the movie hit theaters. A sequel is apparently in development, but without any further details, it still seems years away. Given the lukewarm response to the first movie, a re-tooling might be beneficial.
10. Smile (Paramount)
Based on: Original
Combined WW box office: $355M (2 movies)
Average box office: $177M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 83%
CinemaScore (most recent film): B+
Profitability (Smile 2): $55M
Streaming views: N/A
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Medium
Last year’s sequel didn’t earn as much as the first movie, but still turned a profit of $55 million, according to Deadline, thanks to its modest production budget. I’m not sure how much juice this series could have, but as “Final Destination: Bloodlines” just proved, horror franchises can have long-term rewards.
9. Five Nights at Freddy’s (Universal)
Based on: Video games
Combined WW box office: $291M (1 movie)
Average box office: $291M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 32%
CinemaScore: B+
Profitability: $161M
Streaming views: 740M mins (first four days)
~7M viewers (Peacock)
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: Medium
“Five Nights,” being a low-budget video-game based horror movie, was a low risk, high reward hit for Universal and Blumhouse, which fast-tracked a sequel. Universal said the movie was the most-watched movie on Peacock in its first five days.
8. The Wild Robot (Universal)
Based on: Books
Combined WW box office: $333M (1 movie)
Average box office: $333M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 96%
CinemaScore: A
Profitability: N/A
Streaming views: 330M mins (first week)
~3.3M viewers (Peacock)
Oscar noms (franchise total): 3
Franchise potential: Medium
“The Wild Robot” arrived on Netflix this week, which will surely raise its profile, and a sequel is in the works. It was a quiet hit last year, but I would expect any sequels to benefit from its theatrical and streaming runs.
7. Dune (Warner Bros.)
Based on: Books
Combined WW box office: $1.14B (2 movies)
Average box office: $572M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 88%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability (Part Two): $184M
Streaming views (Part Two): 711M mins (first 6 days)
~4M viewers (Max)
Oscar noms (franchise total): 15 (including 2 best pic)
8 wins
Franchise potential: Medium
The first “Dune” arrived during the pandemic and Warner Bros.’ day-and-date movie strategy. “Part Two” rode the wave of the movie’s theatrical and streaming success to earn over $300 million more than its predecessor. But this is a franchise that feels like it has limits. “Dune: Prophecy,” the Max spinoff series, never charted on Nielsen’s streaming rankings. And “Dune: Messiah,” presumably the next movie in the series, may not be as commercial as the first two, based on everything I know about the book.
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount)
Based on: Video games
Combined WW box office: $1.2B (3 movies)
Average box office: $400M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 73%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability (Sonic 3): $123M
Streaming views (Sonic 3): N/A
Oscar noms (franchise total): None
Franchise potential: High
The Sonic movies have each earned more at the global box office than their predecessor, a rare feat in Hollywood (another recent example: the John Wick movies). How long can it keep going? Hard to say. But Paramount+ apparently had a win with a TV spinoff, “Knuckles,” which Paramount said was the streamer’s most-watched original series in its premiere.
5. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Based on: Toys
Combined WW box office: $1.4B (1 movie)
Average box office: $1.4B
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 88%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability: $421M
Streaming views: 518M mins (first 3 days)
~4.5M viewers (Max)
Oscar noms: 8 (including best pic)
1 win
Franchise potential: High
A sequel to “Barbie” would probably be a slam dunk, but the biggest potential hindrance is that director Greta Gerwig is currently tied up with Chronicles of Narnia movies for Netflix.
4. Wicked (Universal)
Based on: Stage musical/books
Combined WW box office: $756M (1 movie)
Average box office: $756M
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 88%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability: $230M
Streaming views: 882M mins (first 3 days)
~5.5M viewers (Peacock)
Oscar noms: 10 (including best pic)
2 wins
Franchise potential: High
“Wicked” was a box-office hit last year. But Universal was so happy with the PVOD numbers that it released those two (which is almost unheard of, except in recent rare examples). The movie earned over $100 million in premium video-on-demand sales, as of April, according to Universal. Part Two, “Wicked: For Good,” arrives later this year; while international figures were lackluster for the first movie (just 37% of the movie’s gross), perhaps its success will serve as a marketing tool for the sequel in global markets. The books that the stage musical are inspired by could provide permission to expand the franchise (don’t ask me what the rights are like), and I imagine Universal would want to capitalize on the IP for its theme parks, if possible.
3. Minecraft (Warner Bros.)
Based on: Video games
Combined WW box office (so far): $940M (1 movie)
Average box office: $940
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 48%
CinemaScore (most recent film): B+
Profitability: N/A
Streaming views: N/A (still in theaters; coming to Max in June)
Oscar noms: N/A
Franchise potential: High
It remains to be seen whether future Minecraft movies can replicate the viral success of this first entry. But “A Minecraft Movie” is a big enough hit with enough young fans that it would be ludicrous to bet against it. Nearly the entire audience for the movie’s opening weekend domestically was between the ages of 13 and 24. I’m eager to see how it performs on Max when it debuts there in the coming weeks.
2. Avatar (Disney)
Based on: Original
Combined WW box office: $5.7B (2 movies)
Average box office: $2.8B
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 79%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability (Way of Water): $531M
Streaming views (Way of Water): 1.9B mins (first 5 days)
~10M viewers (Disney+ and Max)
Oscar noms (franchise total): 13 (including 2 best pic)
4 wins
Franchise potential: High
If anyone doubted the Avatar franchise before “Way of Water,” it hushed the naysayers by becoming the third highest-grossing movie of all time. Avatar clearly has the juice, and there are three more sequels planned. A common critique of the franchise is that “nobody talks about it”; but maybe that’s precisely why it’s successful. There aren’t decades of lore and expectations built in, like Star Wars, so it appeals to casual moviegoers. But it also has a younger fanbase; half of the audience for “Way of Water” that watched it in its first week on streaming were under 35. Oh, and the ride at Disney World rules and has cemented its cultural footprint outside of box office.
1. THE MVIP: Super Mario Bros. (Universal)
Based on: Video games
Combined WW box office: $1.36B (1 movie)
Average box office: $1.36B
Average Rotten Tomatoes score: 59%
CinemaScore (most recent film): A
Profitability: $559M
Streaming views: 717M mins (first full week)*
~7.8M viewers (Peacock)
*1.35B mins (first full week on Netflix)
~15 million viewers
Oscar noms: None
Franchise potential: High
A sequel to “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” is coming next year, but the franchise’s potential doesn’t stop there. Nintendo historically plays it safe with its IP, but I have to imagine there is a desire for Donkey Kong, Peach, Super Smash, and more movies (most definitely on Universal’s part, at least). “Super Mario” was Deadline’s most profitable movie of 2023, and it was Nielsen’s third most viewed movie on streaming in the US that year, too. And beyond movies, Universal park in Florida just opened its Nintendo World.
Observations/Conclusions:
Among the major studios, Universal seems the most well-positioned in the years to come, if it can successfully capitalize on the good will generated by franchise starters like “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” and “Wicked.”
The video game era of movies is officially here. A third of the properties eligible for my list were based on games.
Netflix struggles to launch movie franchises, but it does give a boost to other studios’ IP. Universal and Sony have streaming deals with Netflix that give a second or third life to their movies after they’ve left theaters.
As I’ve written about before, Disney needs to invest in new franchises. While Avatar is huge, Disney inherited that, and I made an exception to include it here. The studio’s one “new” IP to make the list is “Jungle Cruise”… Pixar sequels and live-action remakes can only take Disney so far.
No news roundup this edition. See you next time, and thanks for reading.
How about M3gan? They have a sequel coming and a spinoff already in the can, and it looks like they're going much bigger than the first movie. I'd buy stock in that.
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